What About Agriculture? Why Is It So Controversial?

Quick Answer: Agriculture is the most politically sensitive part of the deal. About half of India’s population depends on farming, and opening markets to US crops — especially GMOs — is a minefield.

The US sees India as a goldmine for its farm exports. Rollins highlighted the potential for grains, dairy, and processed foods. But in India, agriculture is not just an industry — it’s a way of life for hundreds of millions of people.

India has historically been very cautious about opening its agricultural markets, especially to genetically modified crops, which many Indian farmers and consumers are wary of. The question of how wide the agricultural door will actually open — and how fast — remains one of the biggest unanswered questions in this deal.

Political leaders and farmer groups in India are expected to scrutinise these provisions closely. It’s already shaping up to be a flashpoint in parliamentary debates.

Is The US-India Trade Deal Actually “Done”? Or Is There More to Come?

Quick Answer: This is widely seen as a “Phase One” agreement. The legal text is still being finalised, and a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is expected to follow.

Don’t pop the champagne just yet — at least not all of it. Here’s what trade experts are saying:

The legal text isn’t done. Former US Trade Representative Mark Linscott called it a “huge deal” but noted that formal documentation is still being worked on. Until there’s a joint statement and a negotiated text, much of what’s been announced is a political signal rather than a binding agreement.

Sector-wise details are missing. Think tanks like GTRI have urged caution, pointing out that nobody yet knows exactly which products are covered, what the timelines are, or how compliance will work.

A bigger FTA is on the horizon. Both governments have indicated this is just the beginning. The US-India Strategic Partnership Forum called it an “important first step” toward a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement. A full FTA — similar in spirit to what India just concluded with the EU — could take months or even years to negotiate.

What Does This Trade Deal Mean for the Bigger Geopolitical Picture?

Quick Answer: The deal signals India moving back into the US orbit — and away from the Russia-China axis that had been deepening over the past year.

Over the past year, as US-India trade tensions worsened, India quietly deepened ties with both China and Russia. In August 2025, China and India pledged to be “partners not rivals.” In September, the leaders of India, China, and Russia displayed notable solidarity at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit.

But this trade deal could shift that dynamic. Analysts believe that if the rapprochement with the US proves durable, India will likely “gravitate back to the US bloc.” The energy component is particularly telling — cutting Russian oil and buying American crude isn’t just a trade move. It’s a geopolitical realignment.

Senator Jim Risch, chair of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was blunt about it: he welcomed the deal partly because it would “support efforts to curb Russian aggression” by reducing India’s dependence on Russian energy.

What Are the Key Unanswered Questions About US-India Trade Deal Right Now?

Quick Answer: A lot. From the scope of the deal to India’s Russian oil commitments to the $500 billion purchasing pledge — clarity is still very much needed.

1. What products are actually covered? No one has released a product-by-product list. Exporters are waiting for a US executive order to get clarity.
2. Will India really cut tariffs to zero? Trump said yes. India hasn’t confirmed. Especially in agriculture and regulated imports, this seems like a stretch.
3. How will India replace Russian oil? India imports about 1.2 million barrels per day from Russia. Replacing that with US and Venezuelan crude is logistically and financially complex.
4. What about Chabahar Port and Iran? The US has threatened sanctions on countries doing business with Iran. India’s 23-year investment in Iran’s Chabahar port may quietly disappear — and the 2026 Union Budget shows no allocation for it.
5. Is the $500 billion figure real? Given that India’s total annual imports from the US are under $50 billion, this figure — if genuine — would have to play out over a decade or more.

The Bottom Line

The India-US trade deal of February 2026 is genuinely significant. After a year of punishing tariffs, stalled diplomacy, and real economic damage to Indian exporters, this agreement represents a meaningful reset. It brings India’s tariff rate in line with its Asian peers, opens doors for sectors that were struggling, and signals a warming of ties between the world’s two largest democracies.

But it’s important to stay grounded. The legal text isn’t finalised. Many of Trump’s claims haven’t been confirmed by India. The agriculture question is still a political hot potato. And the sheer scale of some of the commitments — like the $500 billion purchasing pledge — raises eyebrows.

What’s clear is that this is a beginning, not an end. Both sides have signalled that more negotiations, more phases, and more deals are coming. The real test will be in the implementation — and that story is just getting started.

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